by **Daeruin** » Sun Dec 02, 2012 11:16 pm

I'm not well versed in statistics and probability, so I was surprised that you have an equal chance of rolling any given number on one die as you do of rolling doubles of any given number on two dice. In other words, when rolling one die, your chance of rolling any given number is 5%. Rolling two dice, your chance of rolling doubles of any given number is still 5%.

So in Codex, your chance of getting a fumble is 5% and your chance of getting a crit is 5%. Rolling two dice (attacker rolling for his attack and defender rolling active defense), the chance of getting a bind (doubles) is also 5%. So really, crits, fumbles and binds ought to be occurring with equal frequency, as long as you're using active defense for each attack.

It sounds like a lot of this might be fixed by people just remembering to use the rule. I think that could be helped by using my suggestion above—require an initial feat that allows you to even make use of binds, so those who get the feat will be motivated to make that part of their overall fighting strategy and will be more likely to remember it.

My blog: fantasy fiction, gaming, and music